Wheat Market Recap and Analysis

On Thursday, the wheat market experienced a decline with the December contract falling 2’6 to 570’4. A total of 106,433 contracts were traded, with December volume specifically reaching 61,593. Open interest for the session closed at a one-month high of 426,025, an increase of 7,004, or 1.67%. December open interest rose by 1,561 (0.79%), totaling 200,077.
From a technical standpoint, Chicago wheat futures managed to hold the low 560’s, which is favorable for traders seeking a trend reversal. The pivot pocket from 582 3/4-585 1/2 remains a significant resistance level. Bulls will be looking for consecutive closes above this range to break the month-long pattern of lower highs.


Key technical levels include resistance at 596-600, 615-617 1/2, and 629 1/2-634, with the pivot at 582 3/4-585 1/2 and support at 557 1/2-560 1/2 and 544 1/4.


Fundamentally, weekly export sales estimates for 2024/2025 were 411,400 MT, a decrease of 23 percent from the previous week and 14 percent from the prior 4-week average. This was within expected ranges, with notable increases for Mexico, the Philippines, and Indonesia.


Regarding options, the December 565 put was the most active with 1,627 contracts traded. The December 600 strike calls and the December 550 strike puts hold the highest open interest at 7,951 and 7,685, respectively.


Volatility saw a slight increase with the WVL gaining 0.22, closing at a one-week high of 30.03. The 30-day historical volatility settled at 24.45%, down 0.0131%, while the WVL Skew rose moderately, closing at 5.86.


For seasonal tendencies, historical price averages for March wheat futures across various time frames are provided. It’s important to note that past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.


Interested in more insights? Subscribe to our daily Grain Express for expert technical analysis, proprietary trading levels, and actionable market bias on Soybeans, Wheat, and Corn.


Futures trading involves substantial risk and may not be suitable for all. Blue Line Futures, a member of NFA, provides trading advice based on reliable sources but does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information. Trading advice is subject to change without notice, and all trading decisions are made by the account holder.


It is important to note that the National Futures Association (NFA) does not have regulatory oversight authority over underlying or spot virtual currency products, transactions, exchanges, custodians, or markets. This means that when considering virtual currency trading, you must carefully assess whether it is suitable for your financial condition.


In light of the increasing number of cyber-attacks targeting various sectors, including healthcare, finance, and energy, Blue Line Futures is committed to your safety. We will never contact you through third-party applications. Our employees exclusively use company-authorized email addresses and phone numbers for communication. If you need to verify the identity of someone claiming to represent Blue Line Futures, please contact us at info@bluelinefutures.com or call us at 312-278-0500.


Performance Disclaimer: Hypothetical performance results have several inherent limitations. It is not guaranteed that any account will achieve profits or losses similar to those displayed. In fact, there are often significant differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results obtained by a trading program.


One limitation of hypothetical performance results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. Additionally, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can fully account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. Factors such as the ability to withstand losses or adhere to a trading program despite losses can adversely affect actual trading results. There are also many other factors related to the markets or the implementation of any specific trading program that cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results, all of which can negatively impact actual trading outcomes.



Leave a Comment

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *