This analysis focuses on soybeans (ZSX24) and (ZSF25) using a key chart for market support and resistance identification. We employ two primary methods at ONE44: major Gann squares and Fibonacci retracements. The Gann squares are represented by yellow horizontal lines on the chart, indicating market turns at these levels.
Fibonacci retracements are the core of this post. Adhering to ONE44’s rules and guidelines, there are several basic rules for using Fibonacci retracements:
– A 38.2% level signifies that the trend remains intact, with new highs or lows expected to follow.
We have produced 43 insightful videos on the application of Fibonacci retracements in conjunction with the ONE44 trading rules and guidelines. These educational resources are invaluable, transcending market boundaries as the ONE44 principles remain consistent across all trading environments.
Moreover, we elucidate the belief that Fibonacci retracements form the foundational structure governing all market dynamics. In our latest update, we focus on soybeans, marking the final analysis for November. Last week, soybeans failed to establish a new low following a break from the 23.6% retracement level at 1055.00. However, there was a single close below 981.00, which was quickly reversed, sustaining the hypothesis that this level could be the base for the forthcoming bull run. The current rally has reached the 38.2% retracement, aligning with the 9/30/24 high at 1007.00. This level is pivotal for the upcoming week, and we will use it as our swing point. As reiterated, we scrutinize all retracements on each market movement to gauge the strength or weakness of the market, irrespective of long-term objectives.This analysis focuses on the soybean market, specifically the ZSX24 and ZSF25 contracts. The chart provided is crucial for understanding the analysis.
ONE44 employs two primary methods to identify support and resistance levels in the market. The first method involves the use of major Gann squares, which are represented by yellow horizontal lines on the chart. These lines indicate where the market has reversed multiple times.
The second method, which will be the focus of this post, is the use of Fibonacci retracements. When applying Fibonacci retracements with ONE44’s rules and guidelines, there are a few fundamental principles to follow:
– A 38.2% level suggests that the trend remains intact, with new highs or lows expected to follow.
– A 23.6% level indicates that the market is either extremely strong or weak.
– A 61.8% level can lead to significant price swings and may keep the market within a trading range.
– A 78.6% level can cause the market to retrace 78.6% of its recent movement, potentially marking the end or beginning of a bull market.
We have produced 43 insightful videos on applying Fibonacci retracements with the ONE44 methodology. These videos are highly recommended, as the ONE44 rules and guidelines are universally applicable across all markets. They also highlight our conviction that Fibonacci retracements form the foundational structure of all market dynamics.
Our latest focus is on soybeans, with this being the final update for November. Last week, soybeans failed to establish a new low after breaking from the 23.6% retracement at 1055.00. However, they did experience a close below 981.00, only to rebound above it, suggesting this could be the base for the next bull run. The rally has thus far reached the 38.2% retracement, aligning with the 9/30/24 high at 1007.00. This level will be pivotal in the coming week. We advise using 1007.00 as the swing point for the week. As we have emphasized repeatedly, we monitor all retracements on every move to gauge the market’s strength or weakness, irrespective of long-term targets.The rally back above 78.6% (981.00) might have initiated a 78.6% move in the opposite direction. But as seen on the chart, this rally was halted by a 38.2% retracement at 1007.00, leading to a new low for the move. It has had three closes below the 984.00 major Gann square. It hasn’t taken out the 8/16/24 low, and a longer-term bottom remains possible. The 38.2% level above at 1005.00 will be the first test on any rally. Use 984.00 as the swing point for the week. Above it, the short-term target is 38.2% back to the 9/30/24 high at 1005.00. The longer-term target is 78.6% of the same move at 1047.50. The long-term swing point remains at 1116.00, which is 38.2% back to the contract high. Below it, only major Gann squares are to be watched for support and then used as the swing point when closed below. The next few are 936.
At ONE44 Analytics, our goal is to provide you with concise and actionable information. We believe that understanding the underlying structure of all markets is key, which is why we use pure price analysis with Fibonacci retracements and Gann squares.
Our analysis is based on the belief that these tools reveal the inherent patterns in the Grain/Livestock futures markets. If you find this type of analysis valuable and wish to trade in these areas, consider becoming a Premium Member. You can also stay updated by following us on YouTube, where we offer more examples of how to apply Fibonacci retracements in conjunction with the ONE44 rules and guidelines. Don’t forget to sign up for our Free newsletter for regular updates and insights. FULL RISK DISCLOSURE: Futures trading involves substantial risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility of losing all or more than the initial investment. It is important to note that Commission Rule 4.41(b)(1)(I) states that hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain inherent limitations.Simulated trading results, unlike actual performance records, do not represent real trading outcomes. Since these trades have not been executed, the results might have either under- or over-estimated the impact of certain market factors, such as liquidity constraints.
Simulations are generally designed with the advantage of hindsight, which may not reflect the true dynamics of live trading. It is important to note that no guarantee is being made that any account will achieve profits or losses similar to those depicted in the simulation. Lastly, past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
