Grain Markets: Mixed in Early Morning Trade

Corn Tuesday’s Recap: Dec Corn futures settled at 413’6 on Tuesday, up 3’0 in mostly higher trade. Across all maturities, 366,390 contracts were traded, with 197,431 in the Dec maturity. Overall open interest closed at a contract high of 1,683,306, up by 341 (0.0203%). Dec open interest decreased 11,050, or 1.53%, to 712,957.
Technicals: December corn futures found stability in yesterday’s trade but failed to carry strength into overnight trade. Our pivot pocket from 413-416 is currently a brick wall and will be closely watched in the latter half of the week. Continued failure here leaves downside risk open down to first support at 406 1/2-408 1/2. If the Bulls can break through and close above the pivot pocket, a run and retest of recent highs from 425-426 1/2 seems probable.
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Technical Levels of Importance: Resistance is at 425-426 1/2. Pivot ranges from 413 to 416. Support is at 406 1/2-408 1/2 and 397-401 1/4.
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Popular Options: Option trading focuses on Dec 420 calls with 7,603 traded and Dec 400 puts with a volume of 4,255. Options with the highest open interest are Dec 430 call with 32,005 and Dec 400 put with 37,549.


Volatility Update: Implied Volatility ended the session slightly higher with CVL up by 0.089, reaching 19.14. The 30-day historical volatility closed up by 0.16% to a one-month high of 18.72%. The CVL Skew was sharply higher with the 30-day adding 0.46, closing at 1.19.


Seasonal Tendencies Update: Here’s a look at historical price averages for March corn futures on 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30-year time frames. (Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results).


The grain markets are showing mixed signals in the early morning trade. According to the chart, November is typically a challenging month for the market to achieve a significant rally, and it remains to be seen if this year will follow the same pattern.


As provided by SeasonAlgoWheat, Tuesday’s recap shows that wheat futures experienced an uptick, with the December contract closing at 570’4, an increase of 11’6, or 2.10%. The total volume across all maturities was 125,918 contracts, with the December maturity accounting for 67,415 of those. Open interest overall dropped by 585 (0.14%) to end the session at 415,985 contracts outstanding. The December maturity specifically saw a decrease of 2.53%, or 585 contracts, finishing at 198,434.


Technical analysis reveals that wheat futures had a strong upward movement in the previous day’s trade, which continued into the initial part of the overnight session. However, this momentum has since shifted to weakness in the early morning. The first resistance level that bulls are aiming to surpass is between 582 3/4 and 584 1/4.


Grain markets are experiencing mixed trends in the early morning trade. A significant move towards the $6.00 area is possible if certain conditions are met, which could be a psychologically and technically important benchmark. Conversely, failing to maintain support above Monday/Tuesday lows could lead to a decline towards 544 1/4.


Technical levels to watch include:


Resistance: 596-600, 615-617 1/2, 629 1/2-634


Pivot: 582 3/4-584 1/4


Support: 557 1/2-560 1/2, 544 1/4


Among popular options, the Dec 500 put has seen the most trading activity with 1,266 contracts. The options with the highest open interest are the Dec 600 call, with 8,345 contracts, and the Dec 550 put, with 7,404 contracts.


Volatility has also been a factor, with Implied Volatility ending the session higher. WVL increased by 0.67, closing at 29.68. Historical volatility, measured over a 30-day period, rose by 0.92%, settling at 24.99%. The WVL Skew was moderately higher, with the 30-day increasing by 0.48, closing at 6.


The grain markets are exhibiting mixed trends in the early morning trade. This article provides an insightful look at historical price averages for March wheat futures across various time frames: 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 years (note that past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results).


SeasonAlgo offers a detailed update on seasonal tendencies.


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One of the limitations of hypothetical performance results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. Additionally, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can also adversely affect actual trading results.


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